MOSCOW, 24 Nov 2021, RUSSTRAT Institute.
I have already written that for Russia in the coming 2022-2025 there are high risks of wars, military conflicts and clashes. This follows not only from the cycles of military-political and economic dynamics, which have demonstrated the ability to correctly predict many global phenomena, but also from the very real and tangible overlap of economic, social, domestic political, migration, debt, financial crises, and from the end of 2021 – even the global energy crisis.
All these crises, mutually reinforcing each other, push Western elites, especially in the United States and Great Britain, to military conflicts, because they do not know any other way out of severe and protracted crises other than war. This is eloquently evidenced by the experience of the First (1914-1918) and Second (1939-1945) World Wars, the experience of the war in Vietnam (1965-1972), in Yugoslavia (1999), in Afghanistan (2001-2021), in Iraq (since 2003), in Libya (2011), in Syria (since 2011), etc.
We should also not forget that the midterm congressional elections will be held in the United States in November 2022, and the approval rating of Joe Biden and the Democratic Party is steadily falling. After the shameful flight from Afghanistan and on the eve of the upcoming elections, the Biden administration badly needs a “victorious” war. And this circumstance even more strongly pushes the American Democrats to try to demonstrate their power up to the point of unleashing a military conflict with Russia or China.
Obviously, the United States and Britain have now chosen the Black and Baltic Seas as the theatre of military operations. Anglo-Saxon elites are eager to repeat the Crimean War of the mid-19th century, when a coalition of Western countries and Turkey created by Great Britain acted against Russia on the Black, Baltic, White Seas, as well as in the Far East and in Moldavia with Wallachia.
In recent years, American, British and other warships regularly commit provocations in the Black Sea near the Russian borders, and NATO military and reconnaissance aircraft plow the skies over the Baltic, almost flying into Russian territory. And all this in the name of “peace”, “freedom”, “democracy”, “defending human rights” and, in accordance with new trends, in the name of “saving the climate”.
However, the world has changed dramatically since the Crimean War: the United States and Britain are already losing their economic, political and military dominance in the world, although it would also be a mistake to underestimate their strength and power. But we should not overestimate them either, since a second pole of power has been formed in the face of Russia and China.
In addition, in the context of globalisation, the struggle between the two poles of power is unfolding on many fronts and in many theatres (not necessarily military) of action. The geopolitical “Big Game” (the term of the British elites) is now being played simultaneously on many boards, and it is important to take full advantage of this fundamental difference from the situation in the world in the middle of the 19th century.
Russia must respond harshly to the most dangerous threats and provocations from the United States and Britain; otherwise, the Anglo-Saxon elites, once again convinced of their impunity, will certainly commit aggression against Russia.
They will act as they usually do in the beginning, mostly via someone else’s hands (for example, via the hands of Ukrainian nationalists and other “cannon fodder”), but then, if the enemy weakens, they will enter the war themselves and launch full-scale military operations, sparing no one and nothing. The main question, however, is how exactly should Russia respond to these most dangerous threats, provocations and attempts to start a war?
So far, Russia has been very restrained, only tracking the routes of NATO warships and driving away military aircraft and aircraft with intelligence equipment if they try to violate Russian airspace or approach it at a dangerous distance. There are considerable reasons for this behaviour, since Russia does not want to get involved in a war in the Black Sea, on the territory of Ukraine or anywhere else.
However, there are also significant risks, as the United States and the United Kingdom may mistake Russia’s moderation and restraint for its weakness and unwillingness to take military action. And this, in turn, can turn into a full-scale war on its own territory, as it happened on June 22, 1941. It is not necessary to explain what consequences this may lead to, given that the very existence of an independent, sovereign Russia, its nation, its present and future will be called into question.
It seems that in the current very difficult and tense situation, Russia should act deliberately, prudently and at the same time resolutely enough so that no one doubts its ability to repel any provocations and any aggression.
At the same time, it is possible to act both symmetrically and asymmetrically, taking into account the fact that the arena of confrontation between Russia and China with the West is now not only the Black or South China Sea, but also the entire world, global politics, the economy and the information sphere.
Why shouldn’t Russia, for example, conduct limited military exercises not only in the Black Sea (which threatens to intentionally or unintentionally collide with US and NATO warships and aircraft), but, just as importantly, in the Western Hemisphere, near the US’ borders – off the coast of Venezuela or in the Caribbean Sea off the coast of Cuba?
In this case, the United States will feel what the presence of warships and aircraft of the Russian “partner” means at its borders. They will say that it is impossible to scatter military forces at a time when American ships and planes are plying the expanses of the Black Sea and setting Ukraine against Russia with all their might. But they do not need to be scattered.
The presence of several submarines with cruise missiles on board and with demonstration launches of these very missiles in neutral waters, as well as flights of several long-range strategic aircraft, is enough. In the Black and Baltic Seas, they are almost useless, and in the Western Hemisphere they may even be in demand as a retaliatory demonstration of force.
Moreover, Russia has a perfectly reasonable explanation for these exercises in the Western Hemisphere, since Washington regularly makes threats against Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, including calls for direct military intervention.
In the event of a further escalation of tensions in the Black Sea and the supply of American lethal weapons to Ukraine, Russia may well supply more advanced weapons to the Venezuelan or Cuban military. If the United States or the United Kingdom continues to establish military bases in Ukraine, Russia may establish its own military base in Venezuela or Cuba.
Finally, we should not forget about the retaliatory Russian sanctions against not only particularly bellicose American and British politicians, generals, and diplomats, but also against Western, Ukrainian, Polish, and Lithuanian media, as well as Western Internet platforms that publish or distribute outright fakes such as Russia’s preparations for an attack on Ukraine, Poland, or the Baltic states.
Journalists who are somehow involved in these media outlets should be removed from Russia, and the relevant media and Internet platforms can be dealt with in Russian and international courts, accusing them of libel and spreading deliberately false information.
There are other ways to slightly cool the ardor of the belligerent Anglo-Saxons and their loyal Ukrainian satellites. For example, not in words, but in practice, completely (including through the territory of Belarus) stop and block the supply of Russian diesel fuel for Ukrainian tanks, supplies of Russian coal and electricity for Ukraine. Let the Ukrainian elites and Ukrainian Nazis finally answer for their actions before the population of Ukraine.
And there is no need to be afraid that Russia will again be accused of “aggression”, it is already accused of all mortal sins, and Russia continues to support Ukraine, which is what the Ukrainian oligarchs, who contain nationalists and Nazis, are using with might and main. In the event of a further escalation of the situation in the Black or Baltic Sea, it is also possible to reduce gas supplies to Europe through the territory of Ukraine until Nord Stream 2 is launched.
At the same time, it is possible and necessary to supply natural gas, including liquefied gas, coal and other energy resources to China, India and other rapidly developing Asian countries, taking advantage of the favourable market conditions and slightly lowering prices, so that Asian countries are interested in supplying energy resources from Russia, and not from the United States.
In other words, it is necessary to be flexible and quick to respond to the ongoing global shifts in favour of Asian countries, and not focus only on Europe. With such economic actions, Russia will achieve much more than through endless unilateral concessions. And we have long been used to the hysteria of the Ukrainian and Western media.
Of course, pro-Western “peacemakers” among the Russian intelligentsia and corrupt officials, as well as ardent fans of the American dollar-printing machine, can cry out:
“Are you suggesting war? We are for peace at any cost, even at the cost of the complete destruction and dismemberment of Russia, since our children study in the United States, Great Britain and Germany, and our villas and houses are located in Western countries. And let Russia bow down to the great West and become a small, cozy European country under the external control of American and other very smart gentlemen.”
But is it worth listening to these “peace lovers” who are pushing Russia to war, and the whole world to a global catastrophe? American and other “very smart gentlemen” have already shown themselves well in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine, and now they want to show themselves in Russia.
The same “smart gentlemen” performed even better during the global COVID-19 pandemic, during the global migration, debt and energy crisis, when they managed to create chaos, civil wars, bloody showdowns, general freezing and other endless nightmare all over the world. Thanks to “very smart gentlemen”, a quarter of the world is already in ruins, but they are trying to turn the rest of the world into ruins, including their own countries.
Moreover, only by demonstrating real strength and well-thought-out active actions can Russia avoid war. This is the only way to prevent a large-scale military conflict with unpredictable consequences, and to stop the aggressors, Nazis and liberal fascists striving for complete and absolute domination in time.
And, most importantly, we must always remember that even after achieving absolute domination, these “humane” gentlemen will not stop robbing and killing, since wars, looting and interventions are the main way for them to make money “out of thin air”.
As is known, American-style democracy is when American corporations mercilessly and with impunity rob and kill millions and millions of people in all countries of the world, including in satellite countries, using them as another object of robbery or as another “cannon fodder”.
Only after feeling a real rebuff and real strength, the elites of the United States and Great Britain can opt for real negotiations with Russia and China, pacifying the Ukrainian and Polish nationalists. They can abandon, at least for a while, plans to unleash a large-scale war with Russia or with China. As history and modernity show, there was no other way, there isn’t one now, and there never will be.