The West and Russia need to jointly “force peace” on Ukraine

MOSCOW, 29 Oct 2021, RUSSTRAT Institute.

The situation in Donbass is becoming increasingly tense, which makes us think about what awaits not only this region, but also the whole of Ukraine as a whole. The use of the Turkish Bayraktar drone by the Ukrainian military against the People’s Republics for the first time was done in violation of the Minsk Agreements, which raises many questions. Including the West.

Thus, the German Foreign Ministry in a special statement called on the participants of the conflict in Donbass to de-escalate, stressing concern about the developments in recent days and emphasising that only the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission is allowed to use drones. Kiev, represented by Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany Andrey Melnik, is not just making excuses, saying that “Ukraine has a legitimate right to self-defence,” but demands that Berlin “redouble its efforts as a mediator to convene the Normandy summit in Berlin” and “put Moscow in its place”.

The ambassador’s remark looks not only like diplomatic rudeness to Russia and Germany, but also as a cry of despair. Kiev politicians have begun to understand that they are losing control over the events taking place and power in the country is being intercepted by military and armed nationalist groups, the backbone of which is the “green” youth, professing an aggressive ideology and ready to carry out genocide against their “enemies”. In case of the worst development of events in Ukraine, these forces will not stop before purges in the spirit of the Volyn massacre of the Second World War, which will affect the majority of the population of Donbass and national minorities living in Ukraine.

It seems that the Zelensky administration and even the White House are no longer fully managing the situation in Ukraine. As the RUSSTRAT Institute has repeatedly warned, Ukraine is entering a phase of uncontrolled disintegration and a civil “war of all against all”. Its neighbours understand this. It is no coincidence that the other day the head of the Polish ruling Law and Justice party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, announced plans to expand the Polish armed forces to 250,000 regular military personnel and 50,000 reservists. After all, in the event of the collapse of Ukraine, an option is possible where hundreds of thousands of refugees will begin to cross the Ukrainian-Polish border. How will Warsaw respond then? Will it put up machine guns, ask for NATO’s help?

Western countries bordering Ukraine may take preventive measures. In order to forestall the negative consequences of the uncontrolled collapse of the Ukrainian state, they can take steps to protect their national minorities. Hungary in this case will claim Transcarpathia, and Romania – Bukovina. Even Poland, which defends Ukraine to the last, seeing it as an outpost against Russia, may try to appropriate Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk and Ternopol.

It is clear that the collapse of Ukraine will create new and serious problems for the EU. The emergence of the Ukrainian “Wild Field” in Europe, aggressive and uncontrolled, will cause threats of the proliferation of weapons, the activation of criminal groups, and drug and human trafficking. Economic projects will be put at risk. The United States is unlikely to like it either. After all, the spread of the Father Makhno and Father Angel detachments will damage Washington’s European allies, who will not fail to raise the question of their policy in the Ukrainian direction before the Americans.

What is happening in Ukraine now urgently requires a coordinated course from Western countries and Russia and coordination of steps to “force peace” on Kiev. Since, unfortunately, it is already difficult to restrain the ruling elite of Ukraine and nationalists only by political-diplomatic actions.

First of all, in this situation, Washington should refuse to supply weapons to the Ukrainian army, since there are no guarantees that they will not be used against its own NATO allies. In addition, the permanent members of the UN Security Council need to issue a warning that in the event of a coup and the military junta coming to power, it will not be recognised as a legitimate government. There is also an obvious need for consultations between Moscow, Budapest, Bucharest and Warsaw to respond to the situation in the event of a negative scenario of the collapse of Ukraine.

Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute Elena Panina

Institute for International Political and Economic Strategies – RUSSTRAT

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