Study finds COVID reinfection likely in unvaccinated people every 16 months

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People who don’t get the jab could end up being infected with COVID every 16 months, a new study suggests.

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This month, Yale Public Health published in the Lancet the study, which explores the long-term effects of immunity to the virus that causes COVID.

Their model used endemic conditions where everyone has been vaccinated or infected.

Professor of biostatistics Jeffrey Townsend told Yale Daily News they project that natural immunity isn’t long-lived.

Co-author of the study Hayley Hassler said a person infected with COVID has a 5% chance of reinfection within three months and said depending on the person, the rate of reinfection after 17 months jumps to 50%.

“Our results are based on average times of waning immunity across multiple infected individuals,” Hassler said. “Any one of those individuals may experience longer or shorter durations of immunity depending on immune status, cross-immunity, age, and multiple other factors.”

“The overall goal of the study was to provide an answer to a question that at this point in the pandemic would be impossible to answer empirically, which is how long after you’ve been infected by SARS-CoV-2 can you expect to possess immunity against the virus before you become vulnerable to reinfection.”

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Townsend said the results are not surprising because natural resistance to other coronaviruses doesn’t last long.

Other studies have numbers similar to Yale’s.

A Danish report found those under 65 have 80% protection for at least six months, but that goes down to 47% for people over 65.


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