Final Abacus advance poll showed Conservatives ahead, mail-in votes even

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Abacus released a final survey Sunday that showed the Conservatives in the lead in advance polling.

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Abacus interviewed 2,431 Canadians eligible to vote from Friday to Sunday afternoon.

The results found that whereas 46% of Canadians had said they felt the country was headed in the right direction when the election was called, that number had fallen to 39% by the weekend. Albertans led the way with 58% feeling things were going the wrong way.

The survey found 38% of eligible voters said they cast a ballot either by mail or at an advance poll. Among those who voted at an advance poll, the Conservatives were ahead of the Liberals by 7% (35% to 28%) with the NDP at 19%. Among those who said they voted by mail, the vote was split with 33% for the Liberals and 32% for the Conservative. Support for the NDP was 17%.

Among those likely to cast a ballot Monday, the vote was: Liberal 33%, Conservative 29%, NDP 21%, People’s Party 7%, BQ 5%, and GPC 4%.

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The survey found 50% of those asked would definitely want a change in government, 19% want a change but say it’s not important, 11% want the Liberals re-elected but say it isn’t important, while 19% definitely want to see the Liberals re-elected. Since the start of the campaign, the more intense desire for change was up 7-points while those definitely wanting to see the Liberals re-elected was holding pretty steady.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh ended the campaign with the most favourable image: 46% positive and 25% negative for a net score of +21.

Trudeau’s personal numbers also stayed relatively stable over the campaign: 39% have a positive view of Trudeau compared with 44% who have a negative view for a net score of -5.

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Regionally, Trudeau’s net score is -7 in B.C., +2 in Ontario, and -1 in Quebec.

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O’Toole’s positives improved in the early weeks of the campaign but plateaued in the final weeks: 31% had a positive impression of the Conservative leader while 44% viewed him negatively for a net score of -13.

Regionally, O’Toole’s net score was -12 in B.C., +10 in Alberta, -15 in Ontario and -16 in Quebec.

In Quebec, Blanchet was viewed positively: 40% have a positive impression with 29% negative for a positive image of +11. This was largely unchanged since the start of the campaign.

Maxime Bernier remained the most unpopular leader in federal politics, by a wide margin: 12% had a positive impression of him compared with 51% who had a negative view for a net score of -39.

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