MOSCOW, 19 Jun 2021, RUSSTRAT Institute.
The upcoming Russian-American summit is repeatedly subjected to a comprehensive study by everyone, both here and around the planet. From all political directions, from all possible media levels, various forecasts are given for it. From the relatively sane and moderate to the completely hysterical, such as the Ukrainian one: “Everything is lost! We will be exchanged for … (Syria, China, Venezuela and further on the list, strike out what doesn’t apply)”.
But few people, in my opinion, are close to building an analysis on the basis of the initial logic of the occurrence of this upcoming event, to which it is prescribed to become the culmination of the entire established chain.
Thus, the American mass media, especially the official, totally mainstream and globalist-democratic ones, carry out their propaganda rhetoric, giving out the party’s line and often painting black as white. As a result, it’s also they who will cover the results we need with various Jesuit veils, which does not make us go hot or cold. Republican voices are much closer to objectivity and are often in the line of “Biden sold everything”, but in the global context, they are far from being mouthpieces and have little influence on anything.
Different European voices are agitated in their own way, moreover, in some of them spontaneous hidden fear can be felt. Especially in a certain cohort of eastern young Europeans, not to mention naive political babies from Ukraine, to whom the world cataclysms gave the opportunity to “steer something there”. But already, according to historical standards, not for a long time.
The triumphant Macron’s statement stands apart: “Well, I have been calling for several years to negotiate. Finally!”, which is tacitly supported by a part of the nationally oriented elites from the Central European backbone.
In the Russian information space, we can observe a number of fairly balanced assessments, but without the rod described above, on which it’s worth to string everything. Without this “square one”, any analysis will be detached and too abstract review. Weighing and analysing all possible points of contact between us and our “partners”, various experts of “all stripes and branches of the armed forces”, for the most part, find themselves trapped in a “spherical horse in a vacuum”.
Therefore, let’s understand and isolate those chain of events that gave rise to everything. We will consider Biden’s call to Putin as the starting point on a certain coordinate axis. Everything that happened before the call, and what caused it, formed a certain chain of events up to this zero point.
Here it is necessary to understand that in strategic planetary layouts, the main trends are not always visible in the global media mainstream. Yes, there are various information bubbles as an alternative to each other. But they, by and large, only refract the already set agenda, not always revealing the main “gulf streams” behind the accumulation of information flow.
At this historic moment, the American political pendulum has swung in the other direction. By hook or by crook, the Democrats snatched victory from Trump, having accomplished multimillion-dollar electoral fraud. But it doesn’t matter anymore. Those who are already a relic of history have returned to the helm in the Oval Office. Trump in the presidential chair gave us tactical advantages, while his opponents give us strategic ones.
Objectively, the hegemon shrinks all over, and somewhere, not without our help, it is squeezed out, leaving important nodal planetary points. And the whole logic of what is happening is that this administration can only negotiate about a more painless departure.
This is a very interesting area of study. The “Historical Russia” represented by the USSR went through something similar during the Maltese negotiations. This happened when everything was crumbling for us, and we all were falling down in the form of avalanche. The Malta summit – a summit meeting between Bush Sr. and Gorbachev – was just about how to leave so that “not particularly necessary comrades” would not penetrate into the resulting voids, “which nature does not tolerate”.
So, for example, in the Pacific region, much was deliberately given to the Americans, so that the samurai would not eat it. Such a turn of history, when thirty years later we come to the same thing, only this time changing places.
So, as it is known for certain, the first thing that the newly arrived administration did, as soon as it determined its team, was an audit of all foreign relations, which Trump thoroughly turned over. And then it turned out that the war he started with China cannot be stopped, but obligatory must be continued for many good strategic reasons.
Continuing such a recapitulation of foreign relations, the new administration of the White House became aware of the obvious fact that it is necessary to go with some conciliatory gifts to the European allies in order to make amends and mitigate the damage caused to “Euro-Atlantic solidarity” by the former “non-systemic” president.
Around the same time, we saw increased tension on our borders, initiated by vassal Ukraine, which intensified its backward feeble impulses in the direction of Donbass. All sorts of rural voices of suburban “high-ranking” military and politicians sounded that they are allegedly able to solve the issue of Donbass at once. Demonstratively, “on camera”, the echelons of military equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces moved toward Donbass, under the applause of the Ukrainian (fascist) elements, fed via the Soros trough.
On the one hand, such an escalation did not come from the explicit suggestion of the Oval Office, which at that time was engaged in a general inventory of foreign relations. Here you can see the clear handwriting of the Western intelligence agencies, acting in their own logic and having been charged long ago with stalling Nord Stream-2, after all, the “lobbying” for its stop was going on all fronts. The whole echeloned show-off was a signal to the very top of the new American masters about their readiness to carry out any order.
After all, the change of the White House administration gave rise to the expectation in post-Maidan Ukraine that now the Democrats will begin to solve all its problems anew. In the Ukrainian media field, voices were heard loudly: “Biden will come and will restore order!”. Although even here they managed to put a stick in their own wheels. The usual suburban multi-vectoral policy in all its glory, as always out of place and belatedly – the “collective Zelensky” had certain bets on Trump. Well, outside the general Russian field there are no sane elites in these Rus lands.
Up to a certain point, America looked at everything without interfering. At the level of the American embassy, which was invisibly standing behind the collective Bankova Street (location of the Ukrainian administration) , such actions were not stopped, but tacitly (and sometimes not very tacitly) and approvingly supported.
But what happened is what happened and what we discussed in detail in the last article – America had to urgently respond to our military fist.
And it still hangs over post-Maidan Ukraine, and the military intelligence of the “partners” is well aware of it. The argument remained. Moreover, it is being additionally indicated to them in every possible way by all sorts of bold hints. As Vladimir Vladimirovich said, almost verbatim: “At all times, from the time of “historical Russia”, whether it is the Russian Empire, the USSR or the Russian Federation, they tried to bite something off from us and bite us – but jack and squat for you – but we will knock your teeth out.” So think about it, “partners”, how much for now is bitten off from “historical Russia”, whose borders were at least along the Sbruch, Dniester and Bug.
Against the background of a purposeful increase in the confrontation with China, the “Chinese Crimea” – Taiwan – looms not far off. And to get a military confrontation in one of the currently controlled areas, and even with a guaranteed defeat, broke all the plans of the new administration.
It’s one thing when you have a smouldering “as needed” conflict, a familiar and usual vassal atmosphere, an extensive network of various foundations and NGOs, an embassy where people run for instructions – a fine-tuned tool for anti-Russia. Another thing is when there is a bear that swipes all the pieces off the board with its huge paw.
Just when the audit was coming to an end, it became clear that in two directions at once – Ukrainian and Chinese, the current American confrontation is absolutely impossible to pull. Especially being alone. Even for the fight on the one front, you need to gather all the frightened allies, in every possible way showing the “city and the world” that we are still on the horse, that we are back.
Only in this case, according to their estimates, such a joint confrontation against China is possible. And even, as they consider themselves , time is running out.
The factor of the defeated Celestial Empire is still able, in their understanding, to stop their inevitable slide into the abyss. What happened to the USSR 30 years ago is in front of everyone’s eyes, and we sometimes, even at the very top, use the words of the president to poke them it in their nose, indicating the already obvious to everyone parallels that your humble servant spoke about five years ago.
In case of a hypothetical victory, such a dance on the bones with the accompanying looting of the Celestial Empire will give them strength. Next in this virtual list will be us, and then silk Europe, with which it will be already possible to do anything you want. But all this are fantasies, far from reality, everything is guaranteed to go in exactly the opposite direction.
So, what can they offer us? With what can they, in their opinion, stop this maturing explosion of our military power, which breaks all their plans? After all, it’s precisely on this that there was the reaction of the truce, expressed in the offer to “talk”. And the matter is no longer just, as many believe, in our neutrality, needed by them like air, in the hybrid war with China that has begun. Here it is about our power, our collected fist which is a “thing in itself”.
And there already isn’t the former parity in military potential, and our hypersonic barrel is pressed to their temple. The nuclear arsenal of the hegemon has ceased to be updated since the 80s, since their victory in the Cold War, since Fukuyama’s “end of history”, and many technologies in this area have long been lost by them. In other defence areas, things are no better, and we have, I’m not afraid of this word – total superiority. And this is not just my idle amateur fiction.
So, as soon as it comes to strategic stability, any conversation from our part will rest on the edge, i.e., on our outskirts (Ukraine). Ukraine is a place where we have already drawn a red line. Yes, there are many likely items in the upcoming negotiating agenda. The climate component, the position on China, the Middle East, cybersecurity, our underbelly – Central Asia, the settlement of the diplomatic war with mutual expulsion, and many others.
There we have a huge amount of variability and a lot of opportunities for us. If already the very fact of the meeting brings colossal global image gains, then certain, very likely agreements – even more so. Let’s not forget – the hegemon is retreating, and part of the deal will not be public. This side of it can be detected only after a certain time and by certain markers.
But everything that America needs in the main strategic issue described above, will be seen, in my opinion, at a glance. But for some reason, no one writes about it anywhere. If the long-suffering Ukraine is at stake, then there is a completely legal way for the Americans of handing it over and without losing their face.
We have been struggling for so many years over the implementation of the Minsk agreements, but the Kiev authorities have locked themselves in their version. This is like death to them. Minsk breaks all the virtual ideological component built by them, completely overturns all the Maidan foundations and makes the country a field of civilisational competition.
There is a need to remove the military factor, which can be used to cover everything without a twinge of conscience. Then regions are given the opportunity to choose their own economic priorities – to look to the West or to the East. And to solve by themselves their own language and other needs.
The investment activity of the West in those few territories and regions that gravitate towards it will not grow much, as it is happening now too. While for us, who are not limited to all sorts of homegrown blockades and obstacles – it will exponentially increase. Through economic ties with the alignment of tax, customs and other laws, the integration process will be launched
Washington will be able to claim that it has finally been able to oblige autocratic Moscow to comply with the Minsk Agreements. After all, they have repeatedly said that the Kremlin should start implementing Minsk, instead of slowing it down.
It is another matter whether the Americans have such levers to force the collective Bankova Street to stick their head into the noose by themselves. The French and the Germans did not succeed. By the way, an additional factor is the desire of the allies to implement these agreements, which is important for Washington in terms of establishing relations with them.
It is likely that the hook on which the post-Maidan authorities will be put will be their desire to join NATO. With the overseas pressure on Kiev, the main argument may be that the permission for the membership action plan will be obtained only after a full territorial settlement, and it is what Minsk assumes. And, of course, this will be complete slyness, because no one has canceled our red lines. And, as we can see, they are taken very seriously. Well, and what about Crimea? Crimea has long been outside the equation, whatever illusion someone think up.
Thus, the main marker of successful agreements for us will be the herding of Ukraine to Minsk before our eyes by any means. It is difficult to say how long this will last, but I think we will also set the necessary deadlines here. I am sure that this option has already been tested on both sides before the negotiations and is on the agenda. It is not for nothing that Zelensky will soon be called to the carpet in the Oval Office, where, as they say in Ukraine, he will be reprimanded for both NATO and Euro-Atlantic solidarity.
While what is left for do for us is only to bring ammunition and dry rations to China, raising our foreign trade balance to the clouds and developing our own infrastructure. At the same time, watching how the already former hegemon herds his vassal into the pen, for what previously he put a stick in the wheels. Truly, this is our time, and even skeptics will wonder whether Russia is directly governed by the Lord God!